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Canada's real estate overvalued, survey says

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CTV.ca News Staff

Date: Tuesday Oct. 26, 2010 9:43 AM ET

The Economist magazine's latest survey of home prices around the world claims that the Canadian real estate is overvalued by 23.9 per cent.

The magazine's latest survey notes that house prices in Canada climbed 4.5 per cent from a year earlier, compared to a decline of 3.8 per cent in a reading for the third-quarter of 2009. Between 1997 and 2010, prices rose 70 per cent, the magazine said.

The Economist determines "fair value" of housing by comparing the current ratio of house prices to rent, with the long-term average. So homebuyers are likely to be overpaying for property when the price-to-rents ratio is higher than normal.

(In order to calculate the price-to-rents ratio, the purchase price of a house is divided by the annual rent that could have been earned by that house. So a home that costs $200,000 and could rent for $1,000 per month has a price-to-rent ratio of: $200,000 / $12,000 = 16.67. A high number might mean the house is overvalued; a low number means it may be undervalued.)

By this yard stick, Australia led the way among the most overvalued housing markets, with homes 63.2 per cent more expensive than they should be.

That was followed closely by Hong Kong, where the housing market is considered 58.1 per cent overvalued.

By comparison, the Economist says real estate in the United States is undervalued by 2.1 per cent, and houses in Japan are 34.6 per cent cheaper than their fair value.

Of the 20 countries tracked in the survey, only four posted year-over-year price declines. The biggest price increases were in Asian countries, with the exception of Japan, which saw prices fall four per cent compared with last year.

Please Add Comments( )

Wade Ens
said

You mean rent is too cheap. Rent always drop in a recession kids move back home with parents and more people rent together.

KJ in Kingston Ontario
said

Well the thing with transnational analysis and surveys is that you can't abstractly trade a home in one country for another one elsewhere on the planet -- or even between cities in the same country for that matter because they are "as is and where is" commodities. The idea of comparable values might be academically intriguing but it's practically irrelevant.


sph
said

So Economist...your telling me that I have to take 23% off the value of my home to get to a price that you think is reasonable. Let me tell you...I would prefer to add 23% because I am not working like a dog to create an investment for myself so you can undervalue my house based on some silly "apples to oranges" comparison study. Go undervalue your own property.


Shan
said

Rent increases are controlled in most cities. Housing prices are not. The author is jumping to conclusions based on an artificial ratio.


mikeInBC
said

That's good. I'll take this article to my tax assessors office.


Prof. Pye Chartt
said

Garbage "survey"-based analysis that, in terms of the accurate/reasonable determination of "market value" in a country, has not only been discredited in the past but proven (based upon after-the-fact comparative verification) to be unreliable. In short, it only makes for an interesting 30-second conversation. ("The Economist" seems to never let actual market realities get in the way of "clever" theoretical and/or academic survey analysis.) 23.9% is a silly figure, given that it reflects an average comprised of higher/lower numbers. No domestic public/private-sector analysis even HINTS at such a high percentage. However, indeed, the assertion that between 1997 and 2010 prices rose 70% seems about right.


kentington
said

As a prospective home buyer in the National Capital Region I can only agree with this article. I know you lazy sellers *want* your house to be more valuable than it is, but it isn't. Suck it up princesses. More realistic prices please.


Dwayne in da peg
said

Hope the bank reduces my motgage by 24%


Cam
said

I sold my home a couple of years ago, my rent is about half of what a mortgage would be. A sign went up a week ago here in a new town house development, in receivership, 30% price reduction, all pre sales lost about a hundred thousand. These prices would have to drop another 30% before I would think about buying. The value isn't in these homes because prices went up but wages for the people building them didn't so I can build for much cheaper than I can buy.


Serge
said

The Economist magazine predicted the housing crash in the US 2 years before (in '06) ... and even asked if it would drag down the economy.

... enough said.


Amar
said

Your home is a liability, not an asset.


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